Debt outlook

Debt-to-GDP outlook

Two assumptions, both disclosed: (1) each year's deficit is fully financed by new borrowing, added straight to the debt stock. That's the standard simplification for this kind of projection, not a claim about how it's actually financed; (2) GDP for 2027/2028 (not yet published by MMA) grows at 4.7%, the average of the last 3 years MMA has actually published (2024–2026).

The "MMA" row underneath each ratio is MMA's own published debt-to-GDP figure (table 6.5) where available. It runs a little below the ratio computed here because it appears to use a different GDP base than MMA's own national-accounts table (2.1), which this page uses consistently across every year so the trend itself stays comparable year to year.

Domestic vs. external debt

Who actually holds the debt: domestic banks, pension funds and T-bill holders, versus foreign governments and commercial lenders. Actual years only (table 6.5); splitting future borrowing between the two isn't something this page assumes.

External debt-service ratio

External debt service as a share of exports: the IMF-style metric most directly tied to sovereign credit-rating pressure. Source: MMA table 15.

Reserve adequacy

Foreign-currency reserves against a trailing 12-month average of imports: "months of import cover," the standard reserves-health benchmark (commonly cited threshold: 3 months). Source: MMA tables 12 and 14.1.